나이키의 주가는 최근 11일 연속 폭락하였습니다. 하락의 이유는 중국 시장에서의 부진입니다. 2년 사이에 시가 총액이 46% 증발했으며, 할인 판매에도 불구하고 재고자산이 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있죠. 하지만, 주가 매수의 찬스는 주가의 폭락이라는 공포 속에서 꽃을 피웁니다.
나이키 주가 폭락, 도대체 어떤 상황인가?
나이키 시총 반토막?
최근 나이키의 주가는 지속적으로 하락 추세에 있습니다. 코로나 상승장 전의 주가로 되돌아왔습니다. 뉴스에서는 2년새 시총이 46% 증발하였다는 보도가 있었죠. 한번 시가 총액이 얼마나 빠졌는지 같이 한번 볼까요?
Companies Market Cap의 자료를 보면, 현재 나이키의 시가 총액은 1,488억 달러입니다. 시가 총액이 제일 높았던 2,768억 달러였을때와 비교를 하면, 46% 정도 하락하였죠. 왜 이런 일이 있었을까요? 간단하게 뉴스 자료부터 한번 살펴보고 진행해볼게요!
나이키 재고 상황
나이키 주가 급락의 이유는 높은 재고 상황에 있습니다. 구체적으로 나이키 실적의 큰 도움을 준 중국 시장 내 수요가 저하된 것이죠. 중국 시장 매출액은 22년 2분기 21억 6,000만 달러를 기록한 이후 6분기 연속으로 20억 달러를 밑돌고 있는 약세를 보이고 있습니다.
이에 따라 나이키는 실적 방어를 위해 할인 전략을 선택했지만, 그럼에도 불구하고 중국 시장 둔화로 인하여 재고가 쌓이는 상황이죠. 재고 자산이 84억 달러로, 전년 동기인 84억 달러와 비교해보면 재고가 전혀 개선되지 않은 상황입니다. 이는 4년 평균 재고 자산인 70억 달러를 훨씬 상회하는 상황이죠. 재고가 늘어나면, 자연스럽게 관리 비용이 늘어나게 되어, 현금 흐름에도 부정적이죠.
나이키 상황에 대해 가볍게 보실 분들은 위의 기사를 보시면 되겠습니다. 하지만 나이키의 주주 혹은 나이키 저가 매수 투자에 관심이 있으신 분들은 상세한 실적 분석을 보신 뒤, 마음의 방향성을 정하셨으면 좋겠습니다. 저 역시, 나이키의 현재 주가는 매우 매력적이라고 생각하기에 본격적으로 분석해보겠습니다!
나이키 실적, 23년도 실적 분석
손익 계산서 분석
Financial Highlights
손익 계산서를 이해하시는 데 어려움이 있으시다면, 이 글을 먼저 선행해주시면 이해에 도움이 될 거에요.
나이키의 2023년 전체 매출은 2022년보다 향상된 결과를 보여줬습니다만, 영업 이익과 손이익은 감소한 결과를 보고했습니다. 영업이익이 감소한 이유는 감가 상각비의 증가에 있겠죠? 좀 더 세부적으로 분기별로 분석해보겠습니다.
23년 4분기 실적은 직전 분기 대비, 매출과 매출 총이익은 증가하였지만 영업 이익과 순이익은 감소하였습니다. 동일 분기와 비교해도, 매출과 매출 총이익은 증가하였으며, 영업 이익과 순이익은 감소하였습니다.
세부적으로 분기 별로 보나, 포괄적으로 연도 별로 보나 매출과 매출 총이익은 증가 추세이지만 감가 상각비의 증가로 인하여 영업 이익과 순이익은 감소하였죠. 분기 및 연도별 증감 비율은 아래를 참고하시면 됩니다.
- Revenue : $12,825.00 (+4.8% YoY / +3.5% QoQ)
- Gross Profit : $5,595.00 (+1.7% YoY / +4.2% QoQ)
- Operating Income : $1,221.0(-16.8% YoY / -13.5% QoQ)
- Net Income : $1,031.0 (-28.4% YoY / -16.9 %QoQ)
- EPS : $1.60 (-26.7% YoY / -16.4 %QoQ)
이번엔 마진율을 한번 살펴보겠습니다. Gross Margin은 이번 분기 43.6%로, 11분기 평균인 45%를 하회하였습니다. Operating Margin은 10%이며, 11분기 평균인 14%를 역시 하회하였죠. Net Income Margin은 8%로 11분기 평균인 12%를 하회하였습니다. 확실히 영업 이익 마진과 순이익 마진이 더 안 좋은 결과를 기록했죠.
상품별 매출 현황
23년 전체 상품별 매출은 2022년과 비교해서 크게 달라진 점은 없습니다. Footwear(신발)이 압도적인 비율로 많으며, Apparel(의류)가 다음 비중을 차지하고 있죠. 상품별 매출 비중에 큰 변화가 없으므로 넘어가겠습니다.
지역별 매출 현황
위의 사진을 보면, 연도별 지역 매출 비중을 확인할 수 있습니다. 나이키 브랜드에서의 매출을 본다면, 가장 많은 비중을 차지하는 것은 북미 지역이며, 유럽, 중국, 아시아 및 남미 순입니다. 우리는 위의 표를 볼 때, 북미 지역과 유럽 지역은 매출이 연도별로 증가하는 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 하지만, 중국의 매출은 계속 감소하는 추세죠.
그렇다면, 문제가 될 중국의 상세 매출을 한번 보겠습니다. 위에서 우린 중국 매출이 2021년부터 순차적으로 감소하고 있는 것을 알게 되었죠. 2022년은 2021년에 비해 신발과 의류 매출 모두 감소한 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 2023년은 2022년에 비해 신발 매출은 증가한 반면, 의류 매출이 큰 폭으로 감소하였죠.
대차 대조표 분석
부채 비율은 168%이며, 유동 비율은 272%, 당좌 비율은 160%입니다. 다소 높은 부채 비율은 유동 비율과 당좌 비율을 봤을 때 단기 현금 조달 능력이 충분하기에 걱정할 거리는 아니죠. 단기채무 / 총채무 비율도 7.55%로 단기 채무에 대한 리스크도 적습니다. 다만, 채무 / EBITDA가 149%로 만들어내는 돈 대비 채무가 더 많은 상황이죠.
대차 대조표를 상세히 보면, 몇 가지의 부정적인 것이 보입니다. 첫 번째로는 현금성 자산의 감소입니다. 2023년 현금성 자산은 약 106억 달러이며, 2022년 약 130억 달러에 비하면 감소하였죠. 이로 인해 유동 자산이 감소하였습니다.
두 번째는 위에서 언급한 것과 같이 재고 자산입니다. 현재 나이키는 재고 자산이 줄지 않아, 주가 급락이라는 무제를 겪고 있습니다. 현금성 자산은 84억 달러로, 전년 대비 오히려 소폭 증가하였습니다.
위와 같이 연도별로 봤을 때, 재고 자산이 지속적으로 상승하고 있습니다. 재고 자산이 감소하는 추세를 아직 확인하지 못하고 있습니다. 그래서 분기별 재고 자산 추이를 한번 살펴보겠습니다.
어떤가요? 일각에서는 지금 재고 자산이 정점을 찍고 감소하고 있는 추세라고 합니다. 저 역시 분기별 데이터를 본다면 재고 감소라고 생각이 들어요. 다만. 이렇게 판단하기엔 다소 이를 수도 있단 생각이 듭니다. 연도별 데이터는 작년과 동일하기 때문이죠. 최근 중국 부동산의 파산과 디플레이션 문제가 있는 상황 속, 나이키의 재고 자산이 긍정적으로 변할지 의문입니다.
현금 흐름표 분석
2023년 영업 활동 현금 흐름은 2022년에 비해 증가하였습니다. 순수익이 크게 감소하였음에도 불구하고, 왜 이런 결과가 나왔을까요? 이는 매출채권과 재고 자산에 있습니다. 못받았던 돈을 받음으로서, 현금 유입이 생겼으며, 못 팔았던 재고 자산으로 유출되었던 현금의 폭이 감소하였죠.
2023년 투자활동 현금 흐름은 오히려 현금의 유입이 생겼습니다. 이는 단기 투자를 전년 대비 줄였기 때문에 그렇게 되었죠. 재무 활동 현금 흐름은 크게 증가하였습니다. 보통주식 매입과 배당금에 더 많은 비용을 투자하였죠. 이는 투자자들에게 주가 방어와 주주 친화적인 정책이므로 긍정적인 요소이죠.
요약
2023년 재무제표를 본다면, 관망이 좀 필요한 상황이라 볼 수 있을거 같아요. 보통주 매입과 배당금 등 주주 친화적인 자세를 취했습니다. 중국 거시경제의 어려움으로 줄어들었던 재고 자산이 다시 반등할 가능성도 있다고 생각됩니다.
매출과 매출 총이익은 지속적으로 증가하지만, 감가 상각의 증가로 인하여 영업 이익과 순이익은 감소하였죠. 마진율 역시 지속적으로 감소하고 있습니다. 중요한 것은 중국 시장이라고 판단됩니다. 북미와 유럽 지역에서의 매출은 계속 증가하는 추세인반면, 중국 매출이 감소했기 때문이죠. 따라서 중국 경기가 좋아져야 중국에서의 매출이 증가되며, 재고 감소까지 생각할 수 있겠죠?
나이키 주가 급락하고 있는데, 투자해도 될까요?
경쟁사 비교
나이키의 주가 급락에는 재고 자산의 증가와 중국 시장에서의 둔화를 이유로 뽑을 수 있겠죠.지금 상황에서 경쟁사와 비교를 통한다면 투자 결정에 큰 도움이 될 것입니다. 만약 경쟁사 역시 이런 현상을 겪고 있다면 이는 거시 경제의 영향이며, 아니라면 나이키의 문제라고 파악할 수 있기 때문이죠.
나이키는 아디다스와 퓨마와 비교해보면 어떻게 보이나요? 아디다스와 나이키는 공통적인 특징이 있죠. 2019년에서 2020년에 매출이 감소한 것을 볼 수 있습니다. 하지만, 나이키는 21년과 22년에 안좋았던 20년을 바닥으로 19년의 고점을 뛰어넘는 매출을 기록했죠. 하지만 아디다스는 아직 19년 매출을 넘어서는 값을 기록하지 못하고 있습니다.
퓨마는 꾸준히 성장하는 모습을 보이고 있습니다. 하지만 나이키의 매출 성장세보다 약세인 모습을 볼 수 있죠. 근데, 여기서 제안을 하실 분들이 여러 분 계실겁니다. 위의 내용에서는 나이키의 매출보다는 영업이익이 문제가 되었다는 사실을 근거로, 영업 이익을 비교하는 것이 좀 더 타이트한 관점에서의 비교를 해보자고 말이죠.
그래서 영업 이익도 비교할 수 있는 사진을 가져왔습니다. 어떤가요? 일단 아디다스는 안좋았던 시기 영업 적자까지 기록하는 부정적인 모습을 보였습니다. 나이키 역시 마찬가지로 최근 영업 이익의 하락세를 볼 수 있죠. 퓨마는 겨우 영업 이익을 기록하고 있는 실상입니다.
그럼 재고 자산도 같이 한번 비교해보겠습니다. 분기별 재고 자산의 추이를 봤을 때 어떤가요? 나이키의 재고 자산 감소 추세가 가장 확실합니다. 아이다스는 소폭 감소하는 모습이 보이며, 퓨마는 거의 일정해보입니다.
그럼 우리가 내릴 수 있는 결론은 나이키는 투자를 해도 된다는 사실입니다. 현제 나이키가 겪는 문제는 순전히 나이키의 개인적인 문제라고 보기엔 어렵다는 것이죠. 뿐만 아니라 나이키가 격고 있는 문제는 아디다스 역시 겪고 있는데, 이런 상황을 탈피하는 모습이 나이키가 가장 빠르다는 것입니다.
나이키 목표 주가
씨킹알파에 따르면, 나이키의 목표 주가는 127.84달러로 현재 주가 대비 약 31.54%의 상승 여력이 있는 상황입니다. 상당히 안전 마진이 있는 안전한 상황이라고 할 수 있죠. 위에서 언급한 시가 총액이 절반 가량 떨어진 것과 안전 마진이 충분한 상황을 볼 때, 남들이 보기엔 위기가 우리에겐 절호의 찬스라는 것입니다.
나이키 밸류에이션
분기별 밸류에이션을 본다면, PER은 최근 10분기 평균보다 낮은 저평가 상태입니다. PBR과 PSR 역시 저평가 상태이죠. 사실 여기서 EPS가 증가하는 상황이라면 더할 나위없이 좋겠다만, 주당 순이익인 EPS 역시 10분기 평균보다 낮은 상황입니다. 영업이익과 순이익이 감소하는 가운데 단기적인 어려움으로 인하여 영업이익 및 순이익과 밸류에이션이 동반하락한 모습이죠.
나이키 현재 주가 상태
GURUFOCUS 자료에 따르면, 현재 나이키의 주가는 확실히 저평가되어 있는 상태입니다. 위의 밸류에이션에서 볼 수 있듯이 확실히 저평가 상태라는 것을 알 수 있었죠. 위의 자료를 통해 더욱 확실히 어느 정도인지 파악이 가능합니다. 현재 주가 상태는 -40% 수준이니 이는 2022년 고인플레이션으로 인한 폭락장의 말기와 같은 수준인 것이죠.
나이키 : 매수를 하고 싶다면 여기에서!
매매 타이밍은 차트 분석으로 다룰 겁니다. 차트 분석에 대해 여러 가지 관점이 존재하기에, 100% 정답은 없습니다. 제 차트 분석을 보기 전에 기본적인 설명글을 우선적으로 봐주셨으면 해요!
지지 및 저항 라인 분석
지지 라인 : 96달러 / 85달러
나이키 역시 지금 과매도 상태라고 할 수 있습니다. 200일 및 200주 장기 이동 평균선보다 주가가 낮게 형성되어 있는 상태이죠. 이게 무어을 의미할까요? 지금 과매도라는 것입니다. 지금 일봉과 주봉에서 매수의 적기 시그널이 나오려고 하는 상태입니다. 즉 1차 분할 매수를 해도 충분히 합리적이 선택이죠.
1차 지지 라인은 코로나 폭락 전 고가 등을 포함하여 지지 및 저항이 발생된 매물대입니다. 85달러 역시 고인플레이션으로 인한 폭락으로 형성된 저점이죠. 과거의 매물을 통해 지지 라인을 파악한 것입니다.
따라서 1차 매수는 96달러에서 하고 2차 매수를 85달러에서 하여, 평균 단가를 90.5달러 수준에 맞춰 놓는다면, 중국 경제가 개선되는 상황에서 나이키로 인한 수익을 볼 수 있지 않을까 싶습니다.
저항 라인 : 100~105달러 / 115달러
단기적으로 나이키의 주가는 100~105달러에서 볼린저 밴드의 상단이 위치한 가격으로 인하여 저항이 발생할 확률이 큽니다. 또한 115달러에서 200일 및 200주 장기 이평선이 위치한 가격이기도 합니다. 따라서 단기적 저항은 100~105달러에서 발생될 확률이 크며, 115달러에서 중기적 저항이 발생될 확률이 큽니다!
이상으로 나이키의 기업 분석과 주가 분석에 대해 진행을 해보았습니다. 사람마다 기업과 차트를 보는 관점이 매우 다르기 때문에, 저랑 다른 관점이 나올 수 있습니다. 그렇기 때문에, 긍정적인 피드백을 통해 서로 진전한다면 너무 좋을 것 같습니다!
원칙에 준수한 투자를 하고 있습니다. 펀더멘탈과 차트 분석을 통해 종목을 진단합니다.
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My Theme is Generatepress.
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잠시 회사 일로 바뻐서 지금 댓글을 남기네요. 죄송합니다.
정말 많은 댓글을 남겨주셔서 감사합니다.
혹시 궁금하신 점이 있는 분도 계신 것 같은데,
일목요연하게 남겨 주시면 제가 아는 것에 대해서 답변 드릴게요!!
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너무 좋은 찬사를 보내주셔서 감사할 따름입니다.
항상 열심히 노력하겠습니다.
감사합니다.
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고마워요.
일은 무사히 마치셨나요? 고생하셨습니다.
가족과 좋은 시간을 보내세요!!
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제 글을 읽어주셔서 감사합니다
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테슬라도 처음엔 유명하지 않았어요.
끊임없는 노력과 발전을 통해 지금 테슬라가 된 것이죠.
저 역시 끊임없이 노력하겠습니다.
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당신의 웹사이트는 정말 전문적이며, 정말로 보기 쉬우며 아름답게 꾸며져있네요.
항상 댓글을 남길 때 마다 들어가서 보고 있어요
감사합니다!
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고마워요.
항상 여러분들의 웹사이트에서 온 댓글을 보고 전 큰 위안을 얻습니다.
감사합니다
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그래주시면 감사하죠.
오늘도 행복한 하루 보내세요!
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칭찬감사합니다.
좋은 주말 보내세요!
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난 사실, 당신의 블로그가 훨씬 높은 퀄리트를 가졌다고 생각해요.
전 개인의 입장에서 심플하게 만든 것이지만, 당신의 블로그는 전문적인 기업 블로그처럼 잘 꾸며져있어요.
감사합니다!!
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응원 감사드립니다!
다만, 궁금한 게 있는데 이 게시글만 댓글이 많은지 궁금하네요…
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다른 글에도 많은 관심 부탁드릴게요!!
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주말에는 가족들과 많은 시간을 보내시면서, 평일을 위한 재충전 시간을 가지세요~!!
응원 감사드려요!
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응원 감사드립니다!!
계속해서 꾸준히 블로그를 할 계획이에요!!
가는 길이 쉽지 않으니, 많은 응원 부탁드릴게요!
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감사드립니다!!
혹시 궁금하신 기업이 있으면, 제가 분석을 해볼게요!!
피드백 부탁드려요!!
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후.. 직장을 다니면서 하는 것은 쉽지 않네요…
그래도 그런 말씀은 정말 감사할 따름입니다…
고마워요!!
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고맙습니다…
저 역시 감기약이나 두통약이 필요하다면, 귀하의 사이트에 방문해볼게요!!
볼 때 마다 감탄이 나오는 정말 매력적인 사이트라고 생각합니다!!
Awesome post.
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고맙습니다!!! 항상 응원하겠습니다!
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브로… 고마워요 ㅎㅎㅎ
감사합니다!
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그 방법은 정말 긍정적인 것 같아요!!
저도 동영상을 추가하여, 제 사이트에 머무르는 시간을 좀 더 늘리고 싶긴 한데, 저작권이 걱정이 되네요…
그래도 새로운 인사이트를 알려주셔서 감사합니다!
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감사합니다!!
계속 열심히 글을 쓸게요!
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고마워요 ㅎㅎㅎ 다른 글들도 많이 읽어주세요!!
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이런 말을 들을 수 있어 영광입니다…
고마워요 브로
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고마워 브로!!
다른 글도 같이 봐주면 고마울거같아!!
Have you ever thought about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is important and everything. However think of if you added some great graphics or video clips to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and videos, this blog could certainly be one of the very best in its field. Great blog!
아 안녕하세요!!
저도 그렇게 하려고 지금 준비중이에요 ㅎㅎㅎ
Hello, its fastidious piece of writing concerning media print, we all be aware of media is a great source of information.
감사합니다!!
다른 글들도 같이 봐주시면 감사하겠습니다!
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제 글을 읽어주셔서 감사합니다!!
좋은 주말 보내세요~!
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정말 힘이 되는 말이네요. 감사합니다!
WOW just what I was searching for. Came here by searching for %meta_keyword%
감사합니다!!!!! 좋은 하루 보내세요!
Outstanding quest there. What happened after? Thanks!
그 이후로 주가는 상승하고, 재고도 줄어드는 긍정적인 결과가 있었네요…
정말 다행입니다
Hey! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!
보안 문자 플러그인이라는게 정확히 무엇을 의미하죠??
예를 들면, 복사를 못하게 하는 걸 의미하나요?
Thank you, I’ve just been searching for info approximately this topic for ages and yours is the greatest I have came upon till now. But, what in regards to the conclusion? Are you certain concerning the supply?
중요한 것은 중국의 거시 경제에 따라 달라질 것이겠죠.
그리고 주가가 지금 순조로운 것을 보니, 큰 문제를 반영하지 않는다는 것을 의미하고 있습니다.
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